‘Win win’ situation to be embraced

Allow me to comment on the statement attributed to Cllr Mobbs on the front page of your June 20 edition. He is quoted as suggesting in response to the revised ONS figures on population growth for Warwick “that the analysis that needs to take place is extremely complex.” I can quite understand that the new ONS data will cause some uncomfortable soul searching by those councillors and planners who have consistently ignored informed criticisms of the numbers used in the Revised Development Strategy and draft Local Plan. But the analysis needed now is really rather straightforward.

Specifically, the plan assumes a growth of population numbers of 21,472 over the 18 year period from 2011 to 2029. This is derived from the Joint Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) undertaken by consultants (Projection 1A). Combined with the consultants’ assumption about average household size, this results in the plan target for new homes of 12,860 new homes between 2011 and 2029 (para 2.20).

However, the new and authoritative ONS numbers (which unlike the original data now cover the full period to 2029 and beyond) show population growth from 2011 through 2029 of from 137,735 to 153,049 (an increase of only 15,314 or 850 persons per annum. This is almost 29 per cent lower than the growth assumed by the plan. It is not unreasonable therefore to suggest that the “correct” target for new homes for the area should be around 9,200 or 3,700 less than is targeted by the plan. If a constant (rather than a reducing) parameter for average household size based on the Census of 2011 is used, the number of new homes required falls by several thousand more.

This lower housing target will greatly reduce the pressure on threatened green belt sites, lower the amount of infrastructure needed to support a rising population and also reduce the number and scale of employment sites that will be required. The ONS statisticians have provided the area with an unexpected ‘win win’ situation – one that our elected representatives should accept and adopt with enthusiasm.

Alan R. Roe, via email